New England could be in for a shootout against Kansas City

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by huangjian123 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:46 am

Week 6 Patriots vs Chiefs advanced stats:On Sunday Cheap New England Patriots Hats , two of the best teams in football will go at each other in a highly anticipated prime time matchup: the 3-2 New England Patriots will host the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs in a game that will have major implications on the AFC and could shape the playoff picture further down the line. A Chiefs victory would cement the squad as the front runner for the conference’s number one seed, a Patriots win would give the team an advantage over one of its rivals.But before looking too far ahead, let’s analyze the game ahead and some of the advanced stats heading into it (courtesy of SB Nation’s Bill Connelly; for his methodology please click here).Patriots offense vs Chiefs defenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldThe Patriots improved their standard down success rate and first down percentages noticeably when compared to last week. Going against a Chiefs defense that gives up 56.2% of needed yardage on the average given down, the team should therefore also be able to move the football well. Furthermore, it might even be able to improve its big play percentage against a unit that has had some issues stopping big plays from happening. But while Kansas City struggles some in the open field – between its own 30 and the opposing 10 – the team is very good on third down.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineNew England’s success rate while being backed up inside its own 10-yard line took a hit against the Indianapolis Colts but the team has had some success in this area before last Thursday. Meanwhile, an interception in week one still hurts the turnover rate. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have also not been world beaters when having their opponent pinned deep in its own territory – mostly because a team that rarely punts, does not get a lot of opportunities to improve in this area.Red ZoneThe Patriots offense continues to improve in the red area (inside an opponent’s 30-yard line), especially when it comes to the success rate inside the 10: New England improved from 41.7% a week ago to 57.1%. The team’s week six opponent, on the other hand, has been mostly mediocre in the red zone. One statistic stands out Cheap New England Patriots Hoodie , though: turnover rate. Kansas City’s defense has been able to produce takeaways on 9.5% of plays inside its own 10-yard line. In a game that could very well turn into a shootout, limiting mistakes in this part of the field is crucial for Tom Brady and the Patriots.Third DownsDuring yesterday’s press conference, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick pointed out that the Chiefs defense has had success in third down situations. The team has indeed been successful in some third downs, especially when it comes to stopping third-and-longs as well as third-and-shorts. The latter could pose a problem for a New England squad that has had its problems with converting on third and less than a yard.Blitz SituationsTeams that play from ahead usually find themselves in more defensive passing situations. The Chiefs are undoubtably one of those teams, and one that has fared well in such situations. When it blitz downs – obvious passing downs specified as first-and-18 or more, second-and-14 or more, and third-and-3 or more – the team has limited opponents’ success this year. The Patriots, meanwhile, have had similar success. Again, it can be seen that both New England’s offense and Kansas City’s defense have had issues when it comes to big plays.Patriots defense vs Chiefs offenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldThe Patriots defense continues to improve in the open field but it will face its biggest challenge yet. Kansas City continuously moves the football well on any given down between its own 10 and the opponents’ 30, earning a 52.6% success rating – one of the best in the NFL. New England has been inconsistent in this area but has had success in others, especially one that is a strength of the Chiefs: big plays (plays that gain more than 20 yards). This will be a matchup of strength versus strength.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LineNew England’s defense and Kansas City’s offense also match up rather evenly when it comes to backed-up situations: both teams have had some success in this area of the field – inside the offense’s own 10-yard line – which could make for an interesting battles if situations like this come along.Red ZoneWhile the Patriots remain an inconsistent defensive team in the red zone Cheap Custom New England Patriots Jerseys , the Chiefs field arguably the best red area offense in all of football. With the exception of the area between the 21 and 30, Patrick Mahomes and company have had plenty of success no matter the situation. Not only has the team been able to move the football well, it also has limited its mistakes and not turned the football over deep in opponents’ territory. Safe to say that execution in this part of the field will be a key for New England on Sunday.Third DownsDespite fielding the NFL’s most prolific offense, the Chiefs actually find themselves in third-and-longs rather often: on 61.0% of their 53 third down attempts the team has had to gain more than seven yards. As can be seen in the graphic above, though, distance has hardly ever been a problem for Kansas City as the team still has a 30.6% conversion rate in situations like this. New England’s defense, on the other hand, has had its fare share of problems when faced with third downs. The team ranks just 26th in the league, failing to get off the field on 44.6% of third downs.Blitz SituationsIn case you haven’t heard it it yet: the Chiefs’ passing offense is pretty good. Even when the team is likely to throw the football while playing from behind the sticks, it hardly ever can be stopped. Headed by weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins , Kansas City is able to consistently generate yardage in long-distance downs. Once the Patriots defense gets its opponents in usually favorable situations like this one, it needs to find a way to limit big plays to sustain drives – and again hold on third down.If the advanced statistics are an indication, the Patriots and Chiefs are in for an offensive battle. For the home team, the game could very much come down to execution in some key areas:Can the Patriots defense get off the field on third down?Can the Patriots defense limit big plays?Can the Patriots offense take advantage of the Chiefs’ inability to stop big plays?Can the Patriots win in the red zone on both sides of the ball?If New England is able to accomplish most of those things, it could very well sway the outcome of the projected shootout in its favor. The Philadelphia Eagles turned to a familiar face to bolster their depleted receivers corps.The defending Super Bowl champions signed wide receiver Jordan Matthews on Wednesday, reuniting him with close friend Carson Wentz in time for the quarterback's return from injury."We're excited to get him back," coach Doug Pederson said. "He knows our offense. I think it's huge. It has a comfort level for the quarterback knowing that you got another receiver that we brought in from the outside who has worked with him in the past. I just think it can be a benefit to Carson."Mike Wallace was placed on injured reserve after suffering a broken fibula in a 27-21 loss at Tampa Bay.Matthews played his first three seasons with the Eagles before he was traded to Buffalo in August 2017. He signed with the Patriots in April but was released during training camp after he injured his hamstring."Free agency can go one of two ways," Matthews said. "You can get a contract, get paid a ton of money, get on your high horse. Or you can have injuries, have adversity and there's the humility aspect of it. I've been humbled through this experience. I took stuff for granted. Now I'm being thankful for every single day. I know I can be the bottom guy on the roster and it's been a real blessing for me."A 2014 second-round pick from Vanderbilt, Matthews averaged 75 receptions Cheap New England Patriots T-Shirt , 891 yards and six touchdowns per season in Philadelphia. He had 25 catches for 282 yards and one TD in 10 games for Buffalo.The Eagles (1-1) are still missing top receiver Alshon Jeffery following offseason shoulder surgery. Mack Hollins and now Wallace are on IR.Matthews has been a slot receiver throughout his career. Nelson Agholor thrived in that role after Matthews was traded. Pederson wouldn't commit to moving Agholor outside, but that's most likely."We move our guys around so much," Pederson said. "You see Nelson inside, you see Nelson outside, and that could be by formation, just matchups and different things. Nelson has been a really big part of the offense so far and in both spots, inside and outside. He's obviously done a great job blocking in the run game, and then in the passing game to be able to be outside as well. So, moving him around has been beneficial for us."NOTES: RB Jay Ajayi (back), RB Darren Sproles (hamstring), LB D.J. Alexander (knee) and LB Nathan Gerry (groin) didn't practice. Jeffery and LT Jason Peters (quadricep) were limited in practice.
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